What happens in our brain when we exercise our intuition?

A French scientific magazine recently devoted a fascinating dossier to intuition (Science & Vie, August 2021 https://www.science-et-vie.com/archives/n-1247 ). It appears in particular that intuition is the automatic implementation by our brain of knowledge accumulated in our long-term memory.

Far from being a random and therefore unreliable process, intuition calls upon the reflex implementation of our expertise. This process is much faster than deductive reasoning, which calls on our prefrontal cortex. “A sort of short-circuit, a shortcut, is put in place thanks to expertise, which avoids having to go through all the steps that we would consciously do to solve a problem,” according to Axel Cleeremans, professor of cognitive psychology at the Free University of Brussels, quoted by the magazine.

As we have pointed out on several occasions, organizations are evolving in an increasingly complex, volatile, uncertain and ambiguous world.

In this context, deductive reasoning is often challenged.  We have difficulty identifying facts, cause and effect links, and by the time we conduct our rational reasoning (our formal planning cycles for example), the environment has already changed.

Putting accumulated expertise to work instantly undeniably opens up opportunities.  We can make intuitive day-to-day decisions to adapt our response to a changing environment instead of conducting detailed analyses over longer planning cycles. An example given in one of the magazine articles refers to decision making that is 8 times faster than through logical reasoning.

Some of these intuitive decisions made along the way may not be perfectly accurate – but the increased frequency of review and adaptation means that an imperfect decision has less impact and is quickly adjusted. Roughly right is better than precisely wrong!

A demand-driven operating model (DDOM) enables intuitive day-to-day – or even minute-to-minute – decisions that are effectively fueled by the accumulated expertise of the teams that developed the model. Complexity is encapsulated in the model, so that decisions are simple to make.

At a time when artificial intelligence is in fashion, it is interesting to note that it proceeds in a very similar way to human intuition.  On a base of accumulated examples, the AI proceeds by analogies, and will recognize a particular image in a photo, for example, without conducting a deductive reasoning.

Intuition and delegation

Implementing an intuitive model also allows for the deployment and delegation of real-time decision making throughout the enterprise, as close to the operations as possible. Lean practitioners know this well; by using a kanban board, production start and execution priorities are established, without needing a pre-planned scheduling cycle that may already be obsolete due to the latest machine breakdown…

The more intuitive the model, the more it is understood, and the more easily it is adopted by all teams.

Isn’t this the ideal approach for dealing with a complex and changing environment; deploying a rapid decision-making network throughout the organizaton that is aligned to the actual demand facing the organization?

Intuition and computer systems

What is the role of supply chain applications in this context?

The vast majority of our ERP systems are based on formal sequential, monthly and weekly planning cycles and are not necessarily very intuitive. APS solutions have implemented algorithms to speed up decision making, but often suffer from the black box effect and are mistrusted by planners.

Our solutions implement the expertise accumulated by the teams, through the definition of the Demand Driven Operating Model. This model allows the supply chain and production teams to make intuitive decisions in real time, based on visual management principles. Moreover, this model is enriched with new knowledge accumulated through the analysis of inventory, time and capacity buffers. Regardless of the complexity of the operating model, it is critical that the signals are easy to process on a daily basis for the teams; clean screens, visual control, transparency and control by exception.

Logical reasoning is not excluded, rest assured, but instead of being exercised on a daily basis for operational decisions, it is implemented to evolve the model in the Demand Driven S&OP and Adaptive S&OP processes.